"The inequality of things is the nature of things." Han Yu's words mean that all things in nature are different. If this ancient saying is applied to the industry selection of mergers and reorganizations, it is appropriate. Among the 3,000 A-share companies, who doesn't want to become the "pig on the wind" in the wave of capital? But the problem is that the wind is changing every day, and the flying pig changes its skin every year. At present, many entrepreneurs are still in the collective illusion that "the wind of new energy has arrived" and "computing power is king", but they don't see clearly: in the track of mergers and reorganizations, the real wind is not what is said in the news broadcast鼎冠优配, but the result of the joint shaping of capital flow, regulatory guidance and policy expectations.
展开剩余91%Goheal has been studying the merger and reorganization trends of Chinese listed companies for a long time. We know that a successful merger and reorganization never relies on guessing the right track, but on identifying the underlying logic of "industry rotation": who is retreating? Who is coming on stage? Who is being pressed by the policy? Who will be held high by capital in half a year? This is the real "M&A divination".
In the theater of the capital market, the industry never develops according to the script. Yesterday, new energy dominated the screen, and today the digital economy dominated the list; AI became the master key, but medicine fell from the altar overnight; the mixed reform of state-owned enterprises was just hyped, and military technology suddenly danced again. Smart money does not chase hot spots, but bets on the early fermentation of the next round of logic. Goheal always reminds customers that the essence of the outlet is the expectation gap and the arbitrage space brought by information leadership.
Let's take a recent example. A certain A-share company mainly engages in traditional real estate. Since the beginning of this year, it has a strong desire to transform. In the public opinion of "real estate bleeding", it quietly bought the control of an unmanned driving startup. On the surface, it is transforming technology, but in fact it is seizing the policy support window for "new quality productivity". Half a year later, the local government listed the technology company as a "key support project", and the stock price rose sharply. This is not a matter of luck, but the result of understanding the policy clues behind the outlet. In the process of serving the project, Goheal has given feasibility assessments for mergers and acquisitions in multiple directions, and the priority recommendation is precisely this "small and exquisite" target in the driverless track.
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In other words, the core of betting on "industry rotation" in mergers and acquisitions does not lie in whether the company is a star track, but in: 1) whether the regulatory attitude has warmed up; 2) whether there is a gap in the industrial chain; 3) whether the capital market has begun to give a premium; 4) whether the counterparty is willing to give up power and profit. These four points together are the four pillars of what we call "industry-level outlets".
But many people will fall into a misunderstanding: only focus on hot industries, regardless of whether they match the company's constitution. The result is that when new energy comes, all companies want to talk about batteries; when AI becomes popular, even if they are making pork, they have to get a "computing power farming". Unfortunately, supervision sees it more clearly than anyone else. The CSRC's review of mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations not only looks at whether you are in a "hot industry", but also looks at whether you are "free-riding and telling stories". There are countless cases of decoupling from reality to virtuality, false transactions, and whitewashing assets. The projects that can really pass the meeting are those with high synergy with the original main business, real technology, transparent finance, and clear governance.
This also explains a phenomenon: Why are more and more M&A projects stuck in the inquiry letter? Because there are too many people telling stories and too few people telling the truth.
When assisting clients in formulating M&A strategies鼎冠优配, Goheal often emphasizes a seemingly old-fashioned word: "follow the trend." But the "trend" here is not just the "trend" itself, but also the trend of policies, supervision, and capital flows. As we found in a cross-provincial M&A case led by a central enterprise in 2024, the project target's profit was not high, but because it met the regional energy structure transformation goals and was included in the national 14th Five-Year Plan key projects, it took the initiative in valuation negotiations. In the end, the case was successfully approved, and the capital market achieved positive feedback, and the market value doubled.
The industry rotation logic contained in this is not as simple as "speculating on batteries this year and robots next year", but understanding: policy signals = capital orientation = M&A window. Once this formula is established, it is possible to bring excess returns.
So what is "excess return"? In mergers and acquisitions, reasonable pricing + policy endorsement + market recognition + information leadership, when the four arrows are launched simultaneously, you can achieve "buy cheap, sell high", and you don't even need to make a big move to integrate the target. You just need to explain the synergy logic clearly and stabilize the shareholders' emotions, and the market will naturally give you a premium.
However, to bet on this kind of industry rotation, you need forward-looking data analysis and execution capabilities, rather than blindly chasing the rise. Goheal has always emphasized that "the wind outlet" is piled up with data, not slogans.
Our industry research team usually monitors "rotation signals" from five dimensions:
1. Policy orientation: including changes in the caliber of State Council documents and ministries and commissions;
2. Capital flow: continuous net inflow signals of the main funds of the sector;
3. M&A activity: the frequency of transactions in the industry has increased;
4. Audit scale: whether the supervision of the industry's M&A audit is more lenient;
5. Public opinion trends: whether the concentration of media reports has increased.
The "heat index radar chart" composed of these dimensions can determine "who is the next Feizhu" 2-3 months in advance. In many projects, Goheal relies on this model to help customers take the lead when others are still hesitating, and intervene in negotiations when the project just shows signs, so as to take the initiative in supervision, finance, and valuation.
Goheal Group
Of course, Feizhu is not omnipotent. No matter how good the wind is, it also needs a "flying body". In other words, no matter how suitable the industry is, if the company lacks integration ability, digestion ability, and organizational matching ability, then this merger and acquisition may eventually become a mess. We have seen a private listed company that was overwhelmed by the capital boom after acquiring a chip company, blindly leveraging and aggressively acquiring, but ended up with insolvency, stock price collapse, and forced delisting. On the contrary, those merger and acquisition operators with a steady rhythm and seemingly "slower" can cross the cycle and finally sit firmly in the C position of the industry.
Therefore, identifying the wind is "eyesight"; stepping on the rhythm is "foot strength"; successful integration is "internal strength". Only when these three forces are combined can we truly become the pig that flies the farthest in the wave of "industry rotation".
Writing here, I can't help but think of the "Internet +" boom in 2015, when a bunch of traditional industries shouted "+ big data" and "+ AI", but as soon as the wind passed, the stock price collapsed. Now, looking back, those companies that did not have the plus sign but quietly acquired suitable targets and improved the industrial chain are the real winners.
So the question is: In the current capital market with frequent policies and changing winds, who do you think will be the next industry to be pulled up by mergers and acquisitions? Is it the "second spring" of new energy? Or the "brain-computer interface" after AI? Or is it a policy upstart such as the carbon market and green finance?
You are welcome to leave a message in the comment area to share your judgment and observation, and entrepreneur friends are also welcome to contact us. Goheal will continue to accompany you to interpret the wind and grass in the M&A market and identify every "flying pig" lurking under the wind.
[About Goheal] Goheal is a leading investment holding company focusing on global mergers and acquisitions. It has deep roots in the three core business areas of acquisition of controlling rights of listed companies鼎冠优配, mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, and capital operations of listed companies. With its profound professional strength and rich experience, it provides companies with full life cycle services from mergers and acquisitions to restructuring and capital operations, aiming to maximize corporate value and achieve long-term benefit growth.
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